How Long Will R-410A Be Around?

There is a lot of confusion today about the laws regulating refrigerants, especially around R-410A, and how it can be used. The confusion is mostly around the specifics of how the refrigerants, sometimes called freon, can be used and how long they are going to be available. In this blog, we’ll explore some common questions and misconceptions.
An Overview of the Use and Availability of Refrigerants
The reason we have a question about the use and availability of refrigerants is because of the EPA and global agreement’s restriction of harmful chemicals, including refrigerants. The original refrigerant R-12 was determined to be harmful to the ozone layer and thus banned by the EPA in 1996. Production of R-12 is no longer allowed, and it is legally required to be recovered if found in any piece of HVAC equipment.
Its replacement refrigerant was R-22 and was the standard for decades before it was discovered that the chlorine within it, when released into the atmosphere, combines with ozone (O3) to create CLO, which is hypochlorite, a weak base and oxidizing agent and O2 (Oxygen).
On the surface, these are two benign components, but the primary issue is the breaking down of the O3 ozone. Our ozone layer is the protective shield in the Earth’s atmosphere that absorbs most of the sun’s harmful UV radiation. So, in 1995, the Montreal Protocol was established, and an agreement was put in place that R22 would be phased out and R-410 would be its replacement.
The phase-out of R22 began in the early 2000s and was finalized in 2012 when no more equipment could be built with R22 as its refrigerant. It also established that R22 could no longer be produced, only recycled, as of January 1st, 2020. Recycled R22 is still available for HVAC contractors to purchase and is allowed to be utilized in existing R22 systems.
What About R-410A?
As R-410A has become the primary refrigerant in HVAC components, another harmful environmental factor has been discovered. R-410A is a component in greenhouse gasses that has been concluded to assist in global warming. Thus, a new standard was created called Global Warming Potential (GWP). This describes the relationship between GWP and CO2. The higher the concentration of GWP the higher the potency of CO2 to warm the planet.
The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol was signed in 2016, establishing the phase-down of R-410A and the rules for its replacement. Instead of having a hard stop to refrigerant availability like what was done with R-12 and R22, it was determined that there would be a stop of production on R-410A equipment on January 1st, 2025, and a phase-down on production for R-410A. Production will be limited from full production to 90% in 2023, 60% in 2028, 30% in 2033, 20% in 2035, 15% in 2037 and beyond. There is currently not a complete ban on R-410A in place.
The Future of R-410A Equipment
Existing HVAC equipment that uses higher GWP refrigerants, such as R-410A, can continue operation for the foreseeable future. However, those higher GWP refrigerants will be phased down over time. This means legacy refrigerants, such as R-410A, will become less widely available and more expensive.
Properly reclaiming A1 refrigerants from existing systems is not only beneficial to the environment, but will help to manage costs and ensure an adequate supply is available to service the existing equipment in the market.
What Will Replace R-410A?
Unfortunately, the industry has still not agreed on one refrigerant for the replacement of R-410A. In fact, some manufacturers are utilizing different refrigerants with different components within their own brand. The primary refrigerant utilized is either R32 or a component blend of R32 and R1234yf called R454B. R32 has been determined to be mildly flammable, and R1234yf is used as a flame retardant.
The flammability range of these refrigerants is the same as olive oil, meaning that if you put a direct flame to it, it will ignite, but if you remove the ignition source, it will not continue to burn. It’s been determined not to be dangerous, but safety sensors and mitigation systems are required for these systems, which has proven to make new systems more costly.
Both of these refrigerants have no chlorine, thus are not harmful to the ozone, and have less than ¼ of the GWP of R-410A, so they have been determined to be much less harmful to the environment. However, both of these refrigerants have a short expected lifespan as they have an end date of 2035, sooner than R-410A.
Looking Forward for Refrigerants
Industry-wide, it is believed that their replacement refrigerant will be R290 propane. The general expectation is that next-gen systems will be more like today’s chillers. These are self-contained cooling units that, instead of pumping refrigerant through the home’s circuit, heat rejection will occur in an outdoor unit, which pumps a glycol solution into the home’s HVAC system to transfer the heat from indoors to outdoors. So, the refrigerant never goes into the home. R290 has no ozone-depleting properties and 0 GWP. It is considered to be completely benign as a refrigerant. Again, this is the expectation, and these R290 systems are just now being conceived and not expected until sometime in the 2030s.
Trust Summit Heating & Cooling for all Your HVAC Needs!
Whatever comes of refrigerants and any other technological challenges or advancements, you can trust the Summit Heating & Cooling team to stay informed and educated. We pride ourselves on our experience, knowledge, and training to deliver the best possible service to our customers.
We understand that it is our duty to stay informed of all the things our industry throws at us so that we can deliver to our customers the best possible indoor comfort, whether you’re interested in AC installation, maintenance, or repair. We also offer financing and rebate information for your benefit.
Remember, If you’re looking for the TOP, Reach for the Summit. Call Summit Heating & Cooling today!
